Selcan Karabektaş, doctoral student at Grenoble Alpes University and researcher at CERDAP2
Turkey's ambassador in Kabul, Cihad Erginay, recently held talks with the interim deputy prime minister, Abdusselam Hanefi, and the interim minister of energy and water, Abdullatif Mansur, both members of the Taliban interim government. The Taliban's statements at the end of the meeting were surprisingly conciliatory. "We are two friendly and fraternal nations, our relations are deep and go back to antiquity (...) We want to develop our diplomatic relations with Turkey", declared Hanefi, adding that the Taliban would like Turkey to continue its action in Afghanistan in the fields of health, education and humanitarian aid.
Meanwhile, seeking to break the Taliban's diplomatic isolation, their Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, traveled to Turkey on October 14 to meet with his Turkish counterpart, in what was his first substantive political meeting with Ankara representatives since the capture of Kabul. After the meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoğlu said they had discussed in particular the current situation at Kabul airport, with the Taliban continuing to ask Ankara for help in managing this strategic international facility. He also announced that Turkey had made proposals to make the future Afghan government more inclusive, and to guarantee women's access to education.
In Ankara, the Taliban delegation also met with officials from Diyanet (the Turkish Presidency of Religious Affairs), AFAD (the Turkish disaster management agency) and the Turkish Red Crescent. According to diplomatic sources, talks between the Taliban and the Turkish side focused on increasing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, and on ways of preventing the region from experiencing yet another crisis. To date, Turkey is the only NATO country to keep its embassy in Kabul open. Although there is no official recognition of the Taliban, Turkish diplomats are in daily contact with their new government.
At In recent months, the United States, after announcing its departure from Afghanistan abruptly evacuated the country. While negotiations between the Turkey-USA-Taliban trio to decide how security at Kabul airport Kabul airport could be secured, the Taliban had already taken back a large part of Afghanistan. As we know, they quickly quickly took over Kabul. The embassies and diplomatic missions of many embassies and diplomatic missions in Kabul, including those of the and evacuated most of their staff.
Kabul airport: a strategic for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Subsequent events have demonstrated Turkey's determination to play a major role in Afghanistan. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's statement on securing Kabul's international airport was highly revealing in this respect. Erdoğan had asserted that Turkey was in negotiations with the Taliban to take over management of this airport after the departure of the Americans. According to Erdoğan, the Taliban appreciated this proposal. However, they continued to hesitate about what to do.
And yet, to date, the question of the management of Kabul airport remains unresolved. still unresolved. Although Turkey has withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan still wishes to assume this responsibility. Indeed, for economic economic as well as political reasons, Erdoğan wants to emerge as a key player on the regional stage and, above all especially in the Muslim world, by expanding its sphere of influence and the void left by the West in Afghanistan. Over the the last twenty years, Turkey has sought to regain influence influence in Central Asia (particularly Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan). Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan), with whom it shares the use of a Turkic language language and, to a certain extent, a shared history. As you can see, Turkey's presence in Afghanistan could enable Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to better his influence in the region.
However, Erdoğan's stance may have more general effects, such as improving his still strained relations with the United States, gaining NATO's satisfaction or blocking the flow of refugees from Afghanistan tempted to flee to Turkey via Iran (Dalay, Galip. "Will Turkey's Afghanistan ambitions backfire?" Chatham House. 06.10.2021). U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced that during the meeting between the U.S. President and his Turkish counterpart on June 14, 2021, on the sidelines of the NATO summit, it was agreed that Turkey would provide security for Kabul airport.
Following this first step, Erdoğan had hoped to have a meeting with Joe Biden, this time in New York, when he went there last September to attend the United Nations General Assembly. But the American authorities announced that Biden was avoiding bilateral meetings in New York as much as possible, for health reasons. With no bilateral meetings taking place, a disappointed Erdoğan had declared that he felt relations with his American counterpart had "not started well."
He the Taliban's rise to power may offer Turkey new diplomatic and strategic new diplomatic and strategic opportunities for Turkey, it is also concerned the risk of a wave of Afghan refugees arriving on its territory, especially especially as nearly 300,000 have already sought refuge here in recent years. in recent years. Fearing this scenario, the Turkish Turkish authorities are speeding up construction of a wall on their border with border with Iran. It has to be said that the migration issue has become a explosive topic in Turkey, where 3.5 million Syrian refugees already reside. From Moreover, the Turkish economy does not seem able to employ unskilled Afghans Syrians it has previously absorbed. For electoral electoral reasons, Erdoğan cannot ignore this situation, as it seems difficult for him to win the support of Turkish public opinion public opinion if he agrees to welcome new migrants.
Turkish-Qatari rivalry in Afghanistan and the difficult positioning of the other protagonists
Generally regarded as allies in the Middle East, and even in other regions, Turkey and Qatar are at odds over the management of Kabul airport. Wishing to play a strategic role in Afghanistan, Qatar has taken initiatives without informing Ankara. To date, it has held two international meetings, inviting representatives from Afghanistan's six neighboring countries (Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China), the United States, Russia, the United Nations and the European Union (EU). Turkey informed the Qatari government of its dissatisfaction at not having been invited to these meetings.
After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Western countries closed their embassies in Kabul and relocated their representations to Doha, the capital of Qatar. At the same time, Qatar gained the advantage of being able to host peace talks in Doha. Representatives of the US government and the Taliban met for the first time in the Qatari capital on October 9, 2021. The American side stated that the discussions focused on issues of security and respect for human rights. The Doha meetings were described as a continuation of a pragmatic dialogue with the Taliban, which does not however intend to offer them any real recognition or additional legitimacy.
With regard to the current situation in Afghanistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the interim government formed by the Taliban cannot be described as inclusive, but that it is necessary to negotiate with it. In addition, the Russian government invited the Taliban to an international conference in Moscow on October 20, attended by China, Iran, Pakistan and India, to discuss the current situation in Afghanistan.
Long hostile to the Taliban with the Taliban, Iran, which shares a 900 km border with Afghanistan Afghanistan, is also keen to play a more active role in the country following the American withdrawal. Since 2019, there has been a noticeable shift in Tehran's Tehran's approach to the Taliban. In particular, Iran has twice delegation on two occasions, in November 2019 and February 2020, just after the United States had reached an agreement with them.
As for the EU, its representatives stated that it would be necessary to establish a conditional relationship with the Taliban, due to terrorist, migration and security (drug trafficking) threats. On October 9, 2021, following their meeting with the Americans, the Taliban also met EU representatives in Doha. EU officials stated that the meeting had been an informal exchange at a technical level, and not a recognition of the Taliban's interim government. Brussels also announced that aid would be provided to help Afghans seeking to flee Taliban rule.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stressed that the EU did not recognize the Taliban as a government, but would continue to put pressure on them to respect human rights, especially those of Afghan women. No details were given on the question of displaced persons, but the aid provided by the EU is in fact aimed above all at encouraging Afghans to remain in the region, in order to curb a new influx of migrants and asylum-seekers to Europe.
Turkey, the only NATO country to retain its embassy in Kabul after the US withdrawal, is also the first NATO country to be met by Taliban representatives. Although total security has not been guaranteed in Afghanistan, Turkey is still keen to take over the permanent management of Hamid Karzai International Airport. Along with Qatar, Turkey appears to be the most motivated country to support Afghanistan in effectively completing its political transition process. This also appears to be an opportunity for Erdoğan to relaunch his relations with the West, particularly with the United States, which have not yet reached the desired level since Joe Biden came to power.
On the other hand, the issue of Afghan refugees is of concern to the AKP government for electoral reasons, as Turkey's economic situation deteriorates daily. The stakes are therefore very complex and contradictory, as Ankara must not rush to officially recognize the Taliban regime, in order to avoid upsetting its allies and losing its local support. Ultimately, everything will also depend on the Taliban's ability to form an inclusive government and gain international acceptance.