Merve Özkaya, Doctoral student in political science, Université Grenoble-Alpes

Struggling with high inflation in recent years Turks will go to the polls in June 2023, the centenary of the proclamation of the proclamation of the Republic of Turkey. The country's economic crisis and Turkey's complex position in the current international context. international context help to bring an end to Erdoğan's twenty years in power. Erdoğan in power? At a time when polls show the Turkish head of state is in a bad way, we might also ask how the opposition, which has raised its head in the 2019 municipal elections, is preparing for these elections, which will be both presidential and legislative.

The Turkey faces severe economic crisis

The Turkish economy, which grew spectacularly during the AKP's first decade in power, thanks to international capital and credit, is now going through very difficult times. The current economic crisis began to manifest itself with the fall of the Turkish lira during 2018. The deteriorating relations between the United States and Turkey are also at the root of this deteriorating situation. These tensions had notably followed the arrest of American evangelical pastor Brunson, who had been resident in Turkey for over twenty years, and whom Turkey then accused of being linked to the Gülen movement, the organization considered responsible for the failed coup of 2016. The depreciation of the Turkish lira, which had already begun, accelerated further following a tweet by then US President Donald Trump, who threatened to "destroy" the Turkish economy if the Turkish army attacked the Syrian Kurds, just as the United States withdrew its special forces from Rojava.

In addition to these diplomatic tensions with the United States, the rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve a debt crisis and rising inflation in Turkey. inflation in Turkey. Some economists argue that the situation has worsened worsened again, following Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's instructions to the Turkish Central Bank to keep interest rates extraordinarily low. extraordinarily low. Erdoğan, who often presented himself as an economist at the time, pointed out that interest rates were the cause of all the country's and that this was clearly signified by the Muslim religion. This attitude on the part of the Turkish president would have raised doubts about the the decision-making independence of Turkey's Central Bank, and dampened investors' appetite for Turkish markets.

Subsequently, international events such as the the covid-19 epidemic and the war in Ukraine, once again accentuated once again accentuated the effects of the crisis. These were reflected inflation unprecedented since the 1990s. By November 2022, the annual inflation rate had already reached 85%, according to TÜIK (Turkey's statistical institute). The effects of this crisis all sectors of Turkish society since 2018 explain the lack of confidence government. But it's not possible to understand the current situation of the Turkish economy without taking into account without taking into account the political and social crisis that has arisen in this country, due to the authoritarianism at the turn of the 2010s.

The hardening of Erdoğan's political regime

The crackdown on opposition to the which, in particular, put an end to the Gezi protests in the Gezi protests in 2013, did not prevent the AKP from losing its in the parliamentary elections of June 2015. No coalition could be formed, it was decided to reconvene the elections. to reconvene the elections. The campaign for the early elections in November 2015 was severely disrupted by a series of attacks, which were claimed claimed by either the TAK(Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, a Kurdish pro-independence organization, listed as a terrorist terrorist organizations in Turkey and Europe, founded in 2004 by PKK dissidents), or by Daech. After the November 2015 elections, theAKP, returned to power on its own, the AKP stepped up its fight against its domestic domestic politics.

So from 2016, the HDP, a political party stemming from the Kurdish movement, which gave theAKP a hard time after winning over 13% of the vote in the June 2015 legislative elections, was the subject of a series of legal proceedings brought against its cadres or activists. Selahattin Demirtaş, the party's co-chairman himself, has been accused of various crimes, such as "leading", "supporting" or "propagandizing" the PKK. After the failed coup attempt in July 2016, even as the regime was hardening, Demirtaş was arrested, convicted and is currently still in prison, from where, incidentally, he campaigned for the 2018 elections, finishing in third place in the presidential race. In addition, theAKP 's fight against the Gülenists, its former friends turned new enemies, has intensified. Their cadres in the civil service have been systematically purged, and all their economic, educational and media activities have been banned, leading to their outright cessation.

In fact, following the attempted coup coup of July 15, 2016, theAKP, which had become even more authoritarian regime change through a constitutional referendum, having gained the support having gained the support of the far-right MHP party in the meantime. After the referendum in question, narrowly won in April 2017 with a majority of 51.4% of votes cast, the parliamentary system was replaced by an autocratic presidential regime, in which President Erdoğan is head of state as well as head of government. This reform abolished the office of prime minister (which had existed since the the Ottoman Empire), and came into effect in earnest following the presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2018.

The loss of Erdoğan's popularity: the end of an era?

Willy-nilly, Erdoğan has won every election since 2002, thanks both to strong popular support and to political maneuvers that have enabled him to turn social and political crises in his favor every time. Nevertheless, according to the results of some electoral surveys, this situation could change, at the next elections, normally due to be held in June 2023.

Various electoral surveys conducted since June 2018 show that the AKP has lost many voting intentions. While it won 42% of the vote in the parliamentary elections of 2018 parliamentary elections, the polls for 2023 give it around 30% of the vote. of the vote. The major opposition parties, such as the social-democratic CHP secular social-democratic party) and the İYİ Party ( a secular-nationalist nationalist-secular tendency), for their part, are recording a rise that could enable them to win. One of the main reasons for the drastic fall in electoral support for theAKP in recent years is the economic crisis.

According to a survey conducted last April by the Aksoy polling company, 88% of respondents of those polled consider the Turkish economy to be in difficulty, and over 76 % blame the ruling party for this situation. Even among supporters of theAKP, 57% of those surveyed find it for the poor economic situation, while 43% point the finger at the role the role played by outside forces. In the surveys conducted by Ipsos in Turkey, the proportion of respondents that the biggest problem in Turkey is the economy, was evaluated at 92% in April 2022.

The opposition on the campaign trail

While theAKP continues to its popularity, the opposition parties are increasingly organized, and are regaining control like never before in twenty years of AKP government. Since last February, the opposition alliance known as the "Alliance of the Nation six political parties. All the components of this alliance alliance, with the exception of the Kemalist CHP, are right-wing. The İYİ Party (the Good Party) founded in 2017 by Meral Akşener, is a split from the far-right far-right MHP party. The DP (Democratic Party) sees itself as the heir of the former center-right parties(DYP - Just Way Party-, AP - Justice Party-, and Adnan Menderes' emblematic Democratic Party) which often governed Turkey in the second half of the twentieth century. The SP is the traditional party of political Islam, linked to the the Milli Görüş movement, from which the AKP also stems (but the two parties have been have been rivals since their creation in 2001). As for the other two parties in this alliance alliance, DEVA (Democracy and Progress Party) and GP(Future Party) (Future Party), were both founded by dissident AKP cadres. AKP. DEVA was founded by Ali Babacan, former Foreign Minister and Foreign Affairs and Erdoğan's Economy Minister for thirteen years, and the GP the GP by Ahmet Davutoğlu, foreign minister in various Erdoğan various cabinets of Erdoğan for five years, and Prime Minister AKP of Turkey from 2014 to 2016.

This alliance, whose slogan is, "a strengthened parliamentary system for the Turkey of tomorrow", has not yet agreed on a common presidential candidate. presidential candidate. Although some believe it would be preferable to declare candidate as late as possible to delay Erdoğan's electoral counter-attack. Erdoğan's electoral counter-attack that is bound to come, it seems above all that there is no unanimity of these six parties on this subject. Because it is capable of rallying the votes of the secularist fringe and a nationalist right that would no longer vote for the theAKP, Ankara mayor Mansur Yavaş, from the CHP and formerly of the MHP, is one of the personalities most often cited as the opposition's sole candidate. However, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, also appears to be a potential presidential candidate, especially as he has made it clear that he intends to run. made clear his intention to run.

Other rumors point to the candidacy mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, whose victory in 2019 over the AKP candidate theAKP's candidate, demonstrated the potential success of an the opposition. However, this potential candidacy is mortgaged by the İmamoğlu's sentencing to more than two years in prison on December 14, "for insulting Turkish officials". In 2019, the future mayor of Istanbul had publicly denounced the annulment of his of his election to the Istanbul mayoralty by the Supreme Council of Elections, before before Istanbul voters largely confirmed his victory in a new election two months later. However, if this conviction conviction is upheld, all political activity will be banned in İmamoğlu will be banned from all political activity. In any case, the current leader of the CHP, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has called on Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu to remain mayors of their cities cities and not to become directly involved in the upcoming presidential elections. The designation of a common candidate for the Alliance de la Nation is therefore far from being a settled issue, but the coalition's member parties continue to meet regularly. On October 2, 2022, the Alliance even announced the creation of a shadow cabinet, and assured that it was ready to exercise power.

Another opposition alliance is the Alliance of Labor and Freedom, which was recently created by the Workers' Party of Turkey(TİP, a socialist party) and the H DP, the Kurdish party, the third-largest formation in the Turkish parliament. The leader of the TİP, in particular, has declared it conceivable to support the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance against Erdoğan, but hinted that he would need to have some ideological proximity to the Labor Alliance. However, such a candidate profile is unlikely to emerge due to the ideological divide between these two opposing lines, particularly with regard to nationalism and the relationship to the Kurdish question.

As for Erdoğan's party, which announced its leader's bid for the presidency at the beginning of June, is trying to June, it is trying to regain the conservative-nationalist electoral base electoral base that enabled it to win in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Targeting his discourse on nationalist and moralistic values for and moralistic values in domestic policy, he gives a complementary tone to a warmongering tone to its foreign policy orientations, and is currently opportunity to attack Greece. Will this be enough to allow those who have governed since 2002 to win, once again again in June 2023? It's difficult to make predictions at this stage, but but it's certain that the next few months will be particularly busy in Turkey. particularly dense.