Jean Marcou, Professor of Law at Sciences Po Grenoble, researcher at CERDAP2 and associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced, on January 19, 2023, his decision to bring forward the next general elections (presidential and parliamentary) elections in Turkey to May 14, instead of the previously scheduled to be held on June 18. The rumor mill had been churning for several months on this subject and Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right MHP party, an ally of the AKP ally of theAKP, had himself, two days before the announcement, expressed his wish to "finish the job in work in May", declaring that his party was ready. The official explanations for the early date of the elections are, of course, technical. The original initial date of June 18 is close to that of the national entrance exam to and the religious vacation of Eid el-Kebir. But there are explanations that directly concern the political stakes of elections political stakes in elections that promise to be difficult for Erdoğan.

A more favourable economic climate?

We know that the organization of early elections often reflects the desire of those in power to face an electoral deadline at a time to face up to an electoral deadline at a time that is most favorable to them. For almost three years now, Turkey has been experiencing a deteriorating economic situation. In October 2022, inflation reached a record a record 85.5%, and the Turkish lira has steadily depreciated against the depreciated against the dollar over the past few years (by almost 30% again in 2022). Turkey's trade balance remains in deficit, despite record exports record exports and a sustained growth rate (11%). This crisis, which has seen prices of transport, housing and foodstuffs, in particular, are soaring. hit the Turkish population hard. Hence the unpopularity of a government Turks also criticize the government for its atypical economic policy of keeping interest rates low in order to maintain economic activity, while fundamentals. Yet, after hitting rock bottom in 2022, the President of the Republic's popularity Republic has recovered slightly, in recent weeks. There are at least two reasons for this. explanations.

In the first place, the anxiety caused by the by the Ukrainian crisis, so close to home, is helping to restore confidence in a key figure who has played an active role in seeking practical solutions to this conflict to this conflict (Ankara's role in the conclusion of the Russian-Ukrainian cereals agreement, or in prisoner prisoner exchanges, the only genuine "negotiations" between the two belligerents since the belligerents since the start of the war).

Secondly, at home, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who announced his candidacy in June 2022, has been campaigning ever since. since then. If presidential activism constantly gives rise to grandiloquent speeches speeches on the future of a Republic of Turkey whose centenary will be celebrated next next October, it also translates into hard cash, with the launch of new the launch of numerous economic initiatives or the creation of new social initiatives or the creation of new social benefits(assistance with energy bills, salary increases for civil servants and pensioners, housing programmes, etc.). and pensioners, housing programs for the most disadvantaged and the middle public incentives to contain price rises), against a backdrop where, moreover, inflation inflation has begun to fall slightly (to 64.3% in December 2022). This a little more credible, the speech regularly mocked by comedians of Economy Minister Nureddin Nebati, who is constantly repeating that the that the Turkish economy is in an unsustainable slump. But this economic and social lightening is far from being the only reason why the the progress of the presidential and legislative elections...

The reformulation of the electoral scenario

By choosing the date of the election, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is trying to regain control over an event he was supposed to have to endure. For several reasons, this date is not insignificant.

Firstly, May 14th refers to an emblematic moment in the history of contemporary of contemporary Turkey, in 1950, when Adnan Menderes won a landslide victory over the Kemalist victory over the Kemalist CHP party, putting an end to the one-party system which had prevailed since the early days of the republic. Erdoğan has always seen the political process political process he initiated with theAKP in 2002-2003, in the wake of the the experiences of center-right parties with religious sensibilities (Democratic Party, ANAP) which, in the second half of the ^20thcentury century in Turkey, often challenged the Kemalist politico-military establishment and the system of controlled democracy it had established. The The outgoing president did not fail to take up this theme on May 19, when he exclaimed exclaimed: "Our people will give them the same answer as the one 73 years ago.

But this reframing of the electoral scenario is not just symbolic; it also responds to legal concerns that are not without importance. From the outset, the legality of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's new candidacy has been contested. The second paragraph of Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution stipulates that a person can only be elected president for two terms. However, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has already been elected in 2014 and 2018. To this argument, the outgoing president's supporters reply that the 2017 revision, which introduced a presidential system in Turkey, constitutes a real constitutional break, which would have changed the system and reset the counter to zero as far as counting terms is concerned.

Elected president in 2014 under the previous parliamentary system, Erdoğan would thus have been elected only once under the new presidential system in force. He could therefore be a candidate again today. A questionable argument, to say the least, because even if the regime has changed profoundly as a result of the 2017 revision, the Constitution remains the same. It is the one promulgated in 1982, profoundly revised on several occasions...

However, the fact that the next presidential election to May 14 could remove this doubt. But it will have to be officially proposed by parliament. In Indeed, the third paragraph of article 116 (amended by the 2017 revision) of the Constitution provides that "if the Assembly decides to hold early elections elections during the second term of office of a President of the Republic, the latter may again be a candidate." The parliamentary proposal for early elections be adopted by a reinforced majority of three-fifths, i.e. majority, i.e. 360 deputies out of a total of 600, while the presidential coalition coalition (comprising theAKP and the MHP) has just 335. It will therefore need to win the support of opposition MPs; This is likely to be the case, as opposition parties have repeatedly called for early elections, and their leaders have expressed their satisfaction with the the date of May.

What strategy for the opposition?

But is the opposition really ready for this early election? Altılımasa (the Table of Six), i.e. the union of the six opposition parties that have been meeting regularly since February 12, 2022, to discuss their program and strategy, around a table table, met for the eleventh time on January 26, 2023. The declaration issued at the end of this first of all, it recalled that "under the terms of the Constitution Constitution and the law, there can be no doubt about it, it was not it was not possible for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to be a candidate in an election to be held on May 14, before parliament had taken the decision to go to the polls. to go to the polls." In addition, the six parties announced that they had to discuss the single candidacy they would like to present in the presidential election. This is now the key issue for an opposition that is currently currently too open to criticism from its opponents, who denounce a heterogeneous who denounce a heterogeneous alliance with no real captain.

In fact, the Table of Six includes two formations with strong parliamentary representation (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's Kemalist CHP of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Iyi parti, the moderate nationalist party of Meral Akşener), two new formations created by dissidents from theAKP dissidents (Ali Babacan's DEVA and Ahmet Davutoğlu's GP ), two marginal marginal formations (Temel Karamollaoğlu's Islamist party of happiness SP and Gültekin Uysal's Democratic Party). Even though the most important party important party in this alliance is unquestionably the CHP, because it is the party after the AKP, with 189 deputies in parliament, numerous municipalities (including six of the country's ten largest cities) and a substantial logic would dictate that its current leader should be the sole opposition candidate. of the opposition.

However, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is far from unanimous approval. His reputation for integrity has earned him the nickname earned him the nickname "Gandhi Kemal", and in recent months he has shown his his tactical skills by working to bring the opposition together. But in a presidential election where the personality of the candidates is a crucial crucial, some fear that he may not be the right man for the job, especially situation, especially when facing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In addition to these arguments which, even if they are not publicly raised, are on the minds of some of his potential voters, and which concern his age (he will be 6 years older years older than the incumbent president at the time of the election) and his origins (Alevi Kurds from the Tunceli/Dersim province).

Finally, one of the major handicaps of the current leader of the CHP is to suffer, within his own party, from competition competition from two rising stars who have recently delivered humiliating defeats for theAKP, taking control of the country's two biggest cities: Ekrem country: Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara. It's true that the a pending court case in which he is facing a prison sentence for making political comments deemed insulting during the municipal campaign for 2019. As for the latter, who has amply demonstrated his qualities as head of the the Turkish capital, is in danger of being caught up in his past, having started his career with the nationalist MHP, to which he remained affiliated until until 2013; this could deprive him of the support of part of the Kurdish Kurdish opposition electorate.

A Kurdish issue against a backdrop of international tensions

For one of the most important factors in this election is likely to be the voting behaviour of the HDP, the country's third-largest parliamentary party. Admittedly, the Kurdish party was not invited to the Six, and is currently undergoing dissolution proceedings, which the Constitutional Court has just refused to postpone until after the election. However, even if it is finally banned, and if many of its leaders are prevented from taking part in the forthcoming legislative elections, its electorate will have an influence on the outcome of next May's polls.

Selahattin Demirtaş, its former leader, imprisoned since 2016, who came third in the first round of the last two presidential elections, has just called on his party to abandon the idea of fielding its own candidate in the next elections, and to support whomever the Table of Six nominates. This choice is reminiscent of the one made by the HDP in 2019, during municipal elections in major cities, particularly Istanbul, to favor a large victory for Ekrem Imamoğlu. But for the Kurds to support a single candidate, there still needs to be one, with a program other than simply announcing a return to parliamentary rule in the event of victory. Parliament is expected to vote on calling early elections on March 10. In the meantime, time is clearly on the side of the outgoing president who, when he's not holding meetings across the country to promote his record, is honing his image as an influential leader on the international stage.

Turkey has thus taken new mediation new mediation initiatives in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, calling, on January 14, calling for "localized cease-fires ceasefires ", failing negotiations between the two belligerents. belligerents. Above all, it retains a central role in the process of Sweden and Finland joining of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Since Ankara's formal acceptance of the Ankara's formal acceptance of the two Scandinavian countries' application for last June, the talks aimed at finalizing the process have been bogged down. They were disrupted by Turkish requests for the extradition of Kurdish refugees Kurdish refugees, and Ankara's desire to launch anew military new military intervention against the Kurds in northern Syria.

With the burning of Korans perpetrated by Swedish-Danish far-right leader, Rasmus Paludan, in front of the Turkish Embassy in Sweden and a Turkish mosque in mosque in Copenhagen, the affair took on a whole new dimension. These provocations saw Recep Tayyip Erdoğan set himself up as the protector, not only of Muslims around the world, whom the world, whom the Turkish authorities have called on to react, but also of the Turkish diasporas in Europe Europe, who will be voting in May. For its part, the opposition could only the Turkish government's condemnation, blaming the countries concerned for for failing to warn the commission of such acts, and announced that it would block the candidacy of Sweden and Finland. It now seems unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will join the alliance before the Turkish general elections. The outgoing presidency the outgoing presidency intends to consolidate its international image, but the on May 14th will also be played out on the economic and social front, with in what promises to be a very open confrontation.