Jean Marcou, Professor of Law at Sciences Po Grenoble, researcher at CERDAP2 and associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Vladimir Putin Vladimir Putin in Sochi on September 4, 2023. This meeting had been prepared for by the high-profile visits of Turkey's new Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, alternately to Kiev and Moscow, over the past ten days. the last ten days. If this meeting confirms the mediation role role that Turkey has acquired in the Ukrainian conflict, not least because of its ability to speak to both sides of the conflict, it did not the results Ankara had hoped for. This trip therefore for a country that is gradually sinking into a certain economic and political economic and political stagnation, after the euphoria that had followed the the re-election of the outgoing president and his parliamentary majority in the general elections on May 14 and 28, 2023.
The Russian-Ukrainian agreement still at an impasse
The big Putin-Erdoğan meeting was, of course, the negotiation of the renewal of the Russia-Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine. Signed last year on July 22, the agreement enabled the export of more than 33 million millions of Ukrainian cereals, via a secure Black Sea corridor leading to the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, which had been accepted by both and guaranteed by both Turkey and the UN. On July 19, 2023, however, Vladimir Putin withdrew from this agreement, on the grounds that the sanctions against Russia would prevent it from actually exporting its grain from actually exporting its grain and fertilizers.
Turkey has to ensure the survival of this agreement (laboriously renewed for varying for varying periods since July 2022), for a number of reasons. In firstly, as the only element of convergence (along with the prisoner exchange between the two warring countries since the start of the conflict, the agreement contributes to the stabilization of the Black Sea around Turkey. Secondly, it has led Turkey to position itself as a defender of global food security security, contributing to the supply of importing countries and reducing and reducing tensions on world grain prices. Finally, this Above all, this agreement enables Ankara to emerge as an essential pivotal state, at the heart of the new international strategic balance.
However, the the Russian and Turkish presidents' tête-à-tête in Sochi was hardly conclusive. Vladimir Putin, very tough in his discussions, declared that his country return to what is officially known as the "cereals initiative". "initiative" only if the West lifted its sanctions on Russian grain sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports. If, in order implementation of the initiative in question, European countries and the and Americans do not apply such sanctions to Moscow's grain and fertilizer and fertilizers from Moscow, Russia considers that the retaliatory measures to which it has been subjected since the start of the conflict (exclusion from the Swift banking payment network, exclusion from international international insurance systems, etc.) have had the same effect. Consequently, sanctions, which the West cannot accept. Westerners could not accept.
To maintain optimistic tone, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the pro-government press pro-government press have expressed confidence that the grain will soon be able to resume its course, if Russia's demands are are partially met. Perhaps the Turkish president will try to put the ball put the ball in the West's court, as he did after Russia withdrew from the the Russian withdrawal from the agreement during the summer, by asking European countries and the United States to review their positions and ease certain sanctions; which is unlikely to succeed. Be that as it may, it seems that Russia Russia, which is going through a difficult period both internally and on the on the Ukrainian front, is not inclined to let up.
No alternative solutions?
The extent to which this situation has reached an impasse can be gauged from the latest developments in the war since the grain initiative was frozen. Ukraine has stepped up its search for alternative solutions, the main one being to evacuate its grain first via the Danube, and then by rail across Europe. The Ukrainian Danube ports of Reni and Izmail have recently seen a significant increase in grain export activity, but this solution is far from being able to replace sea freight, when the quantities transported are assessed. It's true that several freighters left Odessa in mid-August, braving the risk of Russian attacks by sailing along the Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish coasts. But these freighters were not carrying grain, and Russia retaliated with drone attacks on Ukrainian grain depots, destroying tens of thousands of tons of grain. This could be the start of a real grain war between the belligerents. World prices have risen again, raising the spectre of a shortage that could put countries dependent on Russian and Ukrainian exports (including Turkey itself) in serious difficulty.
In view of this situation, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that alternative solutions to the evacuation of Ukrainian grain the Black Sea were not viable. not viable. But Russia's return to the grain initiative will be difficult to achieve. The only real gain from the September 4 meeting was the an agreement between Russia, Turkey and Ukraine to export export 1 million tonnes of grain free of charge to six African countries six African countries most in need, whose governments are currently close to Moscow close to Moscow (Burkina Fasso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea, Central African Republic). Qatar will buy Russian grain, Turkey will grind it Turkey will grind them and export the flour to the recipient countries.
Strained Russian-Turkish relations and a deteriorating economic situation
Despite this Despite this achievement, the atmosphere at the meeting was rather cool. Turkey's wavering between East and West is not always accepted by the Kremlin. accepted by the Kremlin, which also feels that, in recent months, it has in its favor in recent months. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently reiterated his country's rejection of Russia's annexation of Crimea. annexation of Crimea by Russia, and above all welcomed Volodymyr Zelensky to Istanbul to symbolically hand over to him members of the famous Azov battalions recently freed by the Russians, following Turkish mediation. A a symbolic gesture that did not go down well with Moscow. As a result, even the Turkish Turkish leader to Russia to negotiate the resumption of the cereals agreement appeared to be a very small consumption item.
It has to be said that Turkey, which is still immersed in a deep economic crisis, can ill afford to upset its Western allies at present. The pro-business economic and monetary policy launched in the wake of last May's election victory and pursued by the new Finance Minister, Mehmet Şimşek, and the new Governor of the Central Bank, Hafize Gaye Erkan, presupposes the support of the international business community and careful handling of relations with Europeans and Americans. The Bank of Turkey's key interest rate, raised from 8.5% to 15% in June, was pushed up to 25% last August! This break with the policy pursued by the AKP over the last ten years has so far produced results whose sustainability is not assured. The Turkish lira has recovered slightly against the dollar, but inflation, which had begun to fall moderately since the beginning of the end of 2022, rose again in August, to 58.9%...
Despite his recent electoral victory, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is likely to find, not without bitterness, that this deteriorating situation is forcing him to return to more orthodox positions, not only in economic policy, but also in foreign policy. The prospect of local elections in the spring of 2024, in which the AKP leader hopes to win back the major cities he lost in 2019 (notably Ankara and Istanbul), is already dominating Turkish political life, making us forget the state of grace that momentarily followed his success in the last legislative and presidential elections. But if the next local elections are not to serve as an outlet for a Turkish electorate that did not dare to change in last May's general elections, more convincing results than the Sochi meeting will be needed both domestically and internationally.