Daniel Meierlecturer at Sciences Po Grenoble, associate researcher at UMR Pacte

During the vote at the United Nations General Assembly on March 2, a large number of Arab Arab States voted in favor of the resolution demanding an end to the Russian Russian invasion of Ukraine and denounced the alerting of Russian nuclear forces. nuclear forces. However, several states, including the Palestinian Authority, Algeria, Iran, Iraq and Sudan abstained, with Syria even voting against the resolution. against the resolution. If the intelligibility of this vote is perfectly clear the respective alliances between Russia and the United States, it masks the dissensions that exist within several states, nor on the real impact of this on the states and societies of the Arab Middle East and Iran.

For countries of the region, this war is bad news, as the Middle East's dependence on the Middle East's dependence on cereal imports from the Ukraine is such as Lebanon, which imports 60% of its wheat from Ukraine. wheat from Ukraine. In this sense, the ban on all grain exports on March 9 by the Ukrainian authorities has set alarm bells ringing in several in several Arab capitals. It is probably in Beirut that the urgency emergency: the day before, one of the last shipments of 11,000 tonnes of tonnes of Ukrainian wheat arrived at the port of Tripoli. From now on, the country would have only 4 weeks' supply of wheat, a staple foodstuff for the preparation of bread. which, at a time of unprecedented poverty for three-quarters of the Lebanese population three-quarters of the Lebanese population, a staple food still affordable thanks to subsidies.

At Palestine, the PA adheres to a posture of neutrality that has more to do with American policy on the Palestinian question. But what primarily affects the Palestinians is the perception of a double standard standard: Russia's outright condemnation by a majority of states condemnation of Russia for its warlike action in Ukraine, and the absence of any critical comment on Israel's actions towards Palestine and the Palestinians, despite the Palestinians, despite the publication of an implacable report on the situation of situation of Palestinians in the occupied territories and in Israel .

Dissensions

In terms internal dissension, perhaps the most obvious is in Lebanon, where the Lebanon, where the official diplomatic statement condemning the Russian invasion was seen by Hezbollah as the result of an American maneuver disguising the maneuver that misrepresented the "true" Lebanese position. A "true position" defended by the Shiite party, which is in line with the Iranian Iranian position, which intends to remain neutral on this issue. A neutrality - and not not support for Russia - which can of course be explained by the current Iranian nuclear negotiations with the United States. Iran's diplomatic Iranian diplomatic message calling for a political solution to the the Ukrainian crisis is in tune with Iran's hope that trade sanctions will be lifted sanctions once the new agreement with Washington has been reached, and its reintegration into the world's economic and oil circuits. Russia's through its head of diplomacy Sergey Lavrov, asked the United States for guarantees that the sanctions imposed on Iran would be lifted. guarantees that the sanctions imposed on Russia would in no way affect future future Iranian-Russian relations, once a nuclear agreement has been reached. reached.

For the Gulf oil states, this conflict is to their economic advantage, with the price of oil soaring and OPEC+ countries refusing to increase their production. Despite their vote in favor of the resolution at the United Nations, they hide specific interests and agendas. Saudi Arabia, for example, has turned a deaf ear to repeated calls from the United States for an increase in production. The Kingdom's aim is to show its bad temper - also vocally in a flippant interview given by Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman to the Atlantic - and use this crisis to make the United States reconsider its critical attitude towards the Kingdom, notably in its adventure in Yemen. For their part, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt seem to be walking on eggshells to avoid damaging their relationship with Russia. The former insists that the US administration reach an agreement with Russia, and to this end did not sanction Russia at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on February 25. And Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, depends on the two belligerents for 80% of its wheat imports, and is now looking to diversify its suppliers by considering 14 other countries around the world, from India to Kazakhstan, via France and the United States.

Towards Israeli mediation?

For its part For its part, Israel is emerging as a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The Israeli society has a significant Russian and Ukrainian component, which that its leaders cannot ignore in this equation. Moreover Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked has announced an emergency plan to house 5,000 new arrivals from Ukraine from Ukraine and to regularize the status of 20,000 others. This is also the Israeli vote at the United Nations to stop the bloodshed. stop the bloodshed. From this in-between position, some companies companies can benefit from this in-between position, as seems to be the case with El Al Israeli airline, which continues to accept purchases made via the Russian Russian Mir payment system, which Ukrainian diplomacy has not failed to denounce. Ukrainian diplomacy. But the advantage for Israel lies elsewhere: Europe is looking for alternative gas supplies, and the Hebrew state's enormous resources could find a buyer in this context. This puts the spotlight on the EastMed project, a 1,900 km gas pipeline recently the EU recently included in its list of projects of common interest (PCIs) despite criticism of its harmfulness to the environment - which has led Washington to disassociate itself and its low profitability for European consumers.

Towards the militarization of the conflict in Ukraine?

Apart from its vote in favor of Moscow, Baathist Syria seems to have entered the Russian military equation, since on March 11, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu declared that there were 16,000 volunteers in Syria ready to come and help the Russian army "defend the people living in the Donbass". Vladimir Putin gave the green light to this recruitment operation, carried out by Wagner and the Russian Fifth Corps deployed in Syria, adding that it was necessary to provide these volunteers "who are not doing it for the money" with the means they require, and to help them get to the conflict zone. Syrian fighters have reportedly been recruited in Syrian government-controlled areas for several days now, with future recruits being offered a pardon for their former anti-government activities. Specialists agree that, while we must be cautious about the scale of the phenomenon, it is nonetheless a reality that echoes the concrete problem of the unexpected resistance put up by the Ukrainians on the ground, requiring the use of experienced fighters. The recruitment of Chechen fighters since the beginning of March is another concrete sign of this.