Jean Marcou, Professor of Law at Sciences Po Grenoble, researcher at CERDAP2 and associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul.
The United States has just agreed to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, ending several years of years of negotiations against a backdrop of ongoing tensions between the the two countries. This decision follows the Turkish parliament's ratification of Sweden's application for NATO membership application for NATO membership, which Ankara had been delaying for almost two years by delaying tactics. Are these events a sign of Turkey's return to its Western allies? towards its Western allies? While they undoubtedly mark an easing in Turkish-American relations, they are unlikely to prevent Turkish diplomacy from Turkish diplomacy from pursuing its wide-ranging strategy of maintaining its contacts with Moscow. In fact, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is due to welcome Vladimir Putin in Turkey, in what will be the Russian president's first visit visit by the Russian president to a NATO country since the invasion of Ukraine Ukraine in February 2022.
The origins of the Turkish-American "aviation
It is nonetheless true that by asking Congress to agree as soon as possible to the sale of 40 F-16s to Turkey, as well as 80 kits to modernize its existing fighter jets it already possesses, President Joe Biden has put an end to a sort of a sort of "air quarrel" that has plagued Turkish-American relations for many years. The origins of this affair go back more than ten years ago, at the start of the Syrian civil war, when Turkey civil war in Syria, when Turkey was anxious to protect itself from possible by the Damascus regime, decided to accelerate the acquisition of air defense of air defense missile ramps, which had been decided several years earlier, and announced and announces that it will opt for the CPMIEC system. This surprising choice seems to be the consequence consequence of the U.S. refusal to support the sale of the Patriot missiles Patriot missiles that Washington had previously granted to Ankara. to Ankara. It is also sometimes presented as a Turkish lever to try to obtain to obtain Patriots at a better price and on better terms. However, while China's preference has not yet been confirmed negotiations continued with several countries, it was in 2017 that the Russian S-400s in a context where Ankara and Moscow are in the midst of a Moscow are in the midst of a spectacular rapprochement. Like the the previous one, this choice provoked a warning from NATO, which indicated that these missiles are not compatible with NATO's security protocols. security protocols. But the Turkish president persists. From summer 2019, his country country even begins to receive its first deliveries of S-400s. The American response was swift. Shortly afterwards, Congress decided to exclude Turkey from the F-35 production program, which would have enabled the Turkish Air Force to acquire around a hundred of these latest-generation aircraft.
From F-35 to F-16
This American sanction is heavy consequences, as it prevents Turkey from modernizing its combat air fleet combat air fleet, at a time when it is engaged in multiple military theaters theatres beyond its borders, and where the regional situation is conflict situation. Of course, the following year, 2020, Turkey, during the military operations it launched in Syria and Libya, demonstrated the the effectiveness of combat drones newly produced by its defense industries. defense industries. But however effective, this weapon is no substitute for a military power like Turkey, the possession of a first-rate air fleet. first-rate air fleet. It's also true that Ankara has been planning for the production of a Turkish fighter jet, the Kaan, but the project has stumbled but the project is hampered by the country's technological limitations (engine production in particular). despite the technical progress made in recent years.
With President Biden President Biden had just arrived at the White House, and Turkey was in the throes of a long-lasting economic crisis. economic crisis, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted for a pragmatic moderation of his ambitions . order some forty F-16s from the United States, while at the same time modernizing its existing fleet. But for Washington, and Congress in particular Congress, the Russian S-400 deal remains unresolved, and negotiations negotiations are bogged down to the point where the Turkish President is threatening to another supplier. It's hard to imagine that France could in finding a new buyer for its Rafale, at a time when it is in the process of selling it to Ankara's regional rivals Ankara's regional rivals (Egypt, Greece...). It's up to Russia and its Sukhoi Su-35 and Su-57, which the Turkish since he was deprived of the American F-35. This, however totally unpredictable effects for Turkey, which would be at risk of the risk of Turkey being ostracized from NATO and totally isolated. completely.
From F-16s to Scandinavian applications to NATO
In a sense, it is the war in Ukraine Ukraine and its strategic reversals that will finally bring Turkey out of the impasse. Frightened by Russian aggression, Finland and Sweden, quickly announced their intention to put an end to their traditional neutrality by by joining NATO. Ankara suddenly found itself in a position of strength, since joining the Western Western defense alliance requires the agreement of all its members! Admittedly, the Turkish President is not officially asking for the now famous the now famous F-16 order as a condition for the two Scandinavian countries' accession. Scandinavian countries, but he does accuse them of giving sanctuary to Kurdish Kurdish opponents he considers close to the PKK, of being accomplices of "terrorism". Shortly afterwards, he tried to obtain American approval for a new a new military intervention against the Kurdish militia (YPG) in northern Syria, even though neither the Russians nor the Iranians view such an eventuality such an eventuality.
The fact remains that the Turkish head of state is not really in a position to definitively block these new NATO applications, but he is determined to delay them and use them as leverage to solve the problem of modernizing his air fleet. At the NATO summits of 2022 and 2023, he formally consented to the accessions in question, initially accepting Finland's accession separately, while keeping Sweden's uncertain until the end. It is becoming increasingly clear that the F-16s are at the heart of this interminable bargaining. To put the Americans under pressure at the same time, Ankara has decided to take an interest in the European Eurofighter, despite Germany's open reluctance to sell. At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid lip service to Stockholm's membership. But while the decision on the delivery of the F-16s is still slow to materialize, he explains that, while the American president depends on his Congress to honor the Turkish air order , he himself depends on "his Parliament" to definitively act on Sweden's entry into NATO. The final Turkish decision will not come until January 23, 2024, and this will rapidly unblock the Turkish F-16 order.
Lessons from the never-ending of the F-16s
In the end, this epic provides a accurate picture of Turkish-Western relations. Turkey remains remains a NATO country because its security ultimately depends on this military alliance. alliance, at a time when war is raging in the neighborhood and a Russian victory victory over Ukraine would be a real catastrophe for Turkey, a nightmare nightmare that would echo the many wars fought with this power in the Ottoman era. But if this country supports Ukraine, believing the military operations Moscow's military operations are a violation of its sovereignty, as was the the annexation of Crimea in 2014, it does not wish to expose itself on the front line and upset its big Russian neighbor. It is therefore out of the question question of applying the sanctions decided by the West against Moscow, all the more so as the Turks need Russia's gas and oil, not to mention its tourists, and even its grain and fertilizers. From the best way out of this interloped position is to play the mediation card. is to play the mediation card, which Ankara has succeeded in doing by Ankara succeeded in getting the "cereals initiative" accepted in July 2022. initiative ", which for a time boosted Ukraine's agricultural exports. before Russia changed its mind and abandoned the process.
It is currently in the Black Sea that Turkey's complex position is best illustrated. Since the start of the the Ukrainian conflict, it has played the role of guardian of the straits the Montreux Convention, blocking warships from both sides, which has belligerents; this has worked in Ukraine's favor, preventing Russian naval Russian naval supremacy. Nevertheless the fact remains that, in this maritime space, it must avoid behaving like a NATO country. Thus, at the beginning of 2024, it blocked access to the Black Sea to two minesweepers, before taking the initiative of signing an agreement with Romania and Bulgaria. In this sense, if Turkey has succeeded in keeping the Black Sea free from Russian domination domination, it does not intend to allow Western powers to establish themselves Russia would not accept such an eventuality, and would make it pay the price. pay the price.
In conclusion...
In this game of the great divide, Turkey Turkey runs the risk of upsetting both parties. While Ukraine has long the benefits of this ambivalence, the West views its eastern ally with suspicion, sometimes their eastern ally with suspicion, sometimes exasperated by the connivance with Vladimir Putin. However, Putin on the other hand, is irritated by the pretensions of this rising regional power, which, despite the sympathy it shows, occasionally reminds it that it remains that it remains a NATO country. Last autumn, the visit of Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Istanbul, which saw Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's wish for Ukraine to join the limits acceptable to Moscow. And while relations have remained polite since then, they have not been at their best. for all that. Erdoğan's forthcoming reception of the Russian president in Turkey is in itself an important gesture to his Russian neighbor. important gesture to his Russian neighbor, let's see if he dares to go further...