Jean Marcou, Professor of Law at Sciences Po Grenoble, researcher at CERDAP2 and associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul.
"Suspense" is the word the word that best sums up the crazy electoral evening in Turkey on this Sunday, May 14, 2023. As soon as the polling stations closed, with a record turnout of over record turnout of over 86%, the main contenders for the presidential presidential contenders engaged in a kind of chase, declaring themselves to be ahead in the results, or even on course for victory in the first round. The official media immediately declared Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the clear winner on the basis of results results from the country's most conservative Anatolian areas and those most and most favorable to the AKP, while the opposition denounced a "manipulation", aimed at reproducing the scenario of the municipal elections in Istanbul in 2019, where the ruling party's candidate was long tipped to win, only to lose. his defeat.
Four to five hours after counting began, the counting began, the incumbent was still credited with a score of over 50% of the vote, enabling him to win in the first round. his lead was slipping inexorably, and the need for a second round appeared inescapable. appeared inescapable. What's more, the final result was slow to come as the ruling party's scrutineers systematically disputed the initial in the major cities, forcing a lengthy recount of the votes, which was a lengthy recount of the votes, creating further delays and disputes. and disputes.
In the end, the presidential presidential elections in Turkey on May 14 have resulted in a second round of voting. the YSK (the Supreme Election Council responsible for supervising elections), which declared open the new campaign leading up to the leading up to this event. The scenario was expected, but it's not without a few surprises surprises and raises a number of decisive questions, especially as the questions, especially as the presidential election was coupled with a legislative legislative elections, the outcome of which must also be taken into account.
The first two-round presidential election
With 49.51% of the vote (at the time of writing) time of writing), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will have to face a second round of voting. This is the first time this has happened since the president has been elected by the people in this country, and the opposition press is trying to learn from the French case to offer an analysis of the situation. situation. Let's not forget that, following a constitutional revision adopted by referendum adopted by referendum in 2007, Turkey's first election of a head of state by universal suffrage universal suffrage took place in 2014, and saw Erdoğan win in the first round with 51.79% of votes cast. The second election, held in 2018, not without Turkey's transition to a presidential system, Erdoğan once again won. allowed Erdoğan to break through the the 50% mark (52.59%), enabling him to dispense with a second round of voting to remain in power.
This will not be the case this time, which most polls had certainly anticipated. However, the withdrawal, two days before the election, of the Kemalist opposition dissident Muharrem İnce, who had been the CHP candidate in the previous election, had already given this first round the appearance of a duel, overshadowing the third candidate in the running, Sinan Oğan, who nevertheless obtained 5.17% and finds himself in the position of unexpected arbiter of the second round. With 49.51%, the outgoing president seems to have created a favorable dynamic enabling him to win the second round against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, credited with 44.89%. However, he still has to demonstrate that he has not reached a fateful ceiling and that he has a reserve of additional votes to make the decision on May 28, 2023.
The third man in the first round
In this context, for the two remaining remaining candidates, it will be particularly important to capture the votes of Sinan Oğan, who is expected to give his instructions for the second round in a few days' time. This candidate, from from the radical right is a nationalist, who was even, between 2011 and 2015, deputy of the MHP (the far-right party that is the AKP's main partner in the AKP's main partner in the ruling coalition). Born into a family from Azebaijan, he has held academic and diplomatic functions on behalf of Turkey in that country. Turkey in that country.
He was also elected Member of Parliament for the province of Iğdır, on Turkey's border with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran. He is therefore an ethnic nationalist, very hostile to any idea of negotiations with the Kurds, who probably has a very Eurasian vision of Turkey's international positioning. In particular, he has defended a thesis at Moscow's prestigious MGIMO (State Institute of International Relations). However, in 2016, he was closely involved in the challenge to perennial MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, when the latter rallied to Erdoğan; this ultimately led to the creation of Meral Akşener's İyi Parti (The Good Party), the CHP's main partner in the opposition alliance. However, he is not a member or supporter of this formation.
The raison d'être of his candidacy is in fact the presence of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees on Turkish soil, with Turkish soil, with arguments calling into question the government's migration policy by the government, and evoking the threat of a sort of Syrian-style replacement" in Turkey. The future of Syrian refugees is likely to be debated again in this second round, as Erdoğan has recently begun a rapprochement with Syria. rapprochement with Syria, with the problem of migration and the search for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu also promised, on the basis of an agreement with Damascus agreement with Damascus, that within two years he would endeavor to bring Syrians Syrians currently living on Turkish soil. It should be noted, however, that international law prevents the forced return of these populations to a country where the civil war is not officially over and the regime is notorious for known for its human rights violations.
The legislative elections
With 49.46% of the vote and 322 (at the time of writing) of the 600 seats in the Turkish parliament, the People's Alliance, which mainly brings together the AKP and the MHP, won the parliamentary elections, while the Alliance of the Nation, which unites the main opposition parties, obtained 35.02% and 213 deputies, while the Alliance of Work and Freedom, made up mainly of the Kurdish party (HDP), which ran in these elections under the YSP label (Green Left Party), obtained 10.54% of the vote and 65 seats. The surprise here is not that the People's Alliance came out on top, as predicted by the polls, but that it scored almost 50%, giving it an absolute majority of seats (322 seats versus 344 in the previous legislative elections).
This success will influence the course of the second second round, as it may encourage Turkish voters, in the interests of stability, to give give their vote to an outgoing president able to work with the new parliament parliament elected on May 14, rather than experimenting with a cohabitation of executive and between the executive and legislative powers, whose origins and agenda would be highly antinomic.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has already tried to exploit this advantage in the traditional speech he gave from the balcony of the AKP headquarters in Ankara, saying that the voters had given him a majority from the outset, whatever the result of the first round. In any case, it is certain that the incumbent president will not be easy to beat in the second round, as the AKP has once again demonstrated the reality of its electoral base.
Erdoğyear protected by an electoral base difficult to dent
In particular, the ruling party and its leader remain masters of a largely conservative, albeit densely urbanized, Anatolian peninsula. In the major western metropolises, the new generations have given Kılıçdaroğlu the upper hand, but in Anatolia, the latter, even when living in urban areas, still remain faithful to tradition. Erdoğan still has a majority in Kahramanmaraş, the epicenter of the great earthquake of February 6, 2023. His electoral base may have eroded in the major cities of the West, but it remains sufficient throughout the country to counter an opposition that has never been so united and ready to prevail.
A large part of Turkish society showed once again that it remains fairly conservative, preferring to re-elect the incumbents, despite an unprecedented economic crisis and the immense disaster unprecedented economic crisis and the immense disaster of the February 6 earthquake, for which the the current government responsible. Let's not forget that this country, before Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came to power, was for most of its history governed by right-wing or center-right governments in the second half of the 20thcentury. century, with the left winning only the two emblematic elections of 1973 and 1977, and even then in a way that did not allow it to establish a lasting government of the country.
The opposition in search of a second wind
It is likely that in such a context, surfing on its "all against Erdoğan" strategy, the opposition failed to convince of its ability to embody a credible alternative, which could have pushed enough AKP voters to take the step towards the change the country so desires. in the country. It undoubtedly suffered from its heterogeneity and its relationship relationship with the Kurdish party, a relationship that was nonetheless necessary to have chances of winning.
It remains to be seen whether Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his supporters will find in these days the resources to mobilize opposition voters, once again disappointed by the AKP's resilience of the AKP. It is likely that, beyond the economic emergency in which the country finds itself, the incumbent's challenger will now insist the need not to concentrate all power in the same hands, in order to guarantee in the same hands to guarantee fundamental freedoms in Turkey. Reacting to the results of the first round, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu promised to win in the second, asserting that he was still there and explaining that "the will for change in Turkish society society exceeds 50%".
The challenge of alternation therefore remains for the opposition, while some believe that this election is the last chance for last chance for Turkish democracy. For another victory for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, even if it's not a resounding one, is unlikely to be not be perceived by the interested party as a warning from his electorate to soften to soften his political choices, but rather as an incentive to continue with the rigidification of the country that began a decade ago, both domestically and internationally. and internationally.