Antoine Bristielle is an associate professor of social sciences and a doctoral student at the Pacte laboratory (@AntoineBristie1). Tristan Guerra is a part-time lecturer at Sciences Po Grenoble, and a doctoral student in the Pacte laboratory (@TristanGuerra_)
When a democratic regime crisis, the public authorities need broad popular support more than support in order to ensure the legitimacy of decisions that may temporarily restrict decisions that may temporarily restrict citizens' freedoms. The results of the political confidence barometer, published on a regular basis by CEVIPOF, confirmed that in these times of health emergency, the President of the Republic of the Republic and the government were unable to generate the level of public confidence among the population than is the case among our European neighbors. European neighbors.
The first interpretations of this mistrust were not long in coming. "Severe", "grumpy", "distrustful", even "irresponsible", the adjectives to describe the critical attitude of the French. A In contrast, in neighboring countries, the coronavirus crisis has led to a major revival popularity for the governments in place, demonstrating their "maturity their "maturity", their "discernment", and their ability to rally behind the flag the flag to form a sacred union against the virus. Without questioning the shortcomings of the French executive's handling of the crisis, it is indeed crisis, it is indeed unsettling to note that heads of state or government such as Boris Johnson, Giuseppe Conte or even, to a lesser extent, Donald more support than Emmanuel Macron, when their management of the crisis crisis is sometimes even more hazardous.
Deceptive political support
To understand the confidence in the French president, it is important to remember that his election that his election in 2017 was based on a particularly narrow social base: the 66% of votes obtained in the second round of the presidential election can be explained more by rejection of Marine Le Pen than by support for the En Marche candidate's project. The real base of support for Emmanuel Macron in the 24% of votes obtained in the first round of the in the first round of the 2017 presidential election and 22% in the 2019 European European elections in 2019.
But political trust is above all partisan. Rather than psychologizing essentialist considerations about French traits, the best explanation for explanation for confidence in the executive is also the simplest: LREM supporters LREM sympathizers have confidence in the government, unlike those who support the opposition. In an IFOP poll taken after the President's last President's last address, just 22% of voters close to the France Insoumise and 20% of Rassemblement National voters said they had the government to deal effectively with the coronavirus, while almost 90% of supporters of the République en marche.
Partisan polarization is not a phenomenon peculiar to France, and may even be more intense in other countries. In the United States, for example, the vast majority of Republicans approve of Donald Trump's actions, compared with just 7% of Democrats. In the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson's surge in popularity within his own camp, with the Conservative approval rating Conservatives from 56% in July 2019 to 97% in mid-April 2020. Here too, only 34% of Labour members approve of his action. The "rally under the flag" so often prophesied in times of major crisis is translating into the the whole of his camp, but very little beyond. This is also true of parliamentary systems governed by broad coalitions which represent a substantial proportion of the electorate. Unlike in Unlike in France, the formation of a coalition enables German and Italian Italian governments to be able to count on greater support. In Italy, a country by the epidemic, the government formed by a coalition of the center-left party center-left party and a populist formation enjoys support that reaches 56%. In the case of Germany, the sharp rise in the Chancellor's popularity the Chancellor's surge in popularity occurred outside her own party but it is among the voters of the two parties in the grand coalition support. In these different types of system, the voting systems governments to rely on a broader social base, which in turn gives them which, in turn, makes them more popular, even in times of crisis. times of crisis.
The low level of support for Emmanuel Macron is thus largely due to the political system of the Fifth Republic, which has become a "machine for disappointment", as Emiliano Grossman and Nicolas Sauger put it.Emiliano Grossman and Nicolas Sauger. The focus on the presidential election, the cornerstone of the regime, has led to inordinate expectations of a president whose room for manoeuvre is limited - despite all the "Jupiterian" rhetoric he can use. This led to a decline in his popularity soon after taking office, and a retreat to his electoral heartland in the first round. Even today, in the age of the coronavirus, this mistrust of the President remains the logical translation of the way the political system works.
A undermined by the interplay of institutions
In ordinary times, the institutions of the Fifth Republic mask this reality by allowing the head of state to govern head of state to govern with a reduced electoral base. The situation becomes becomes more complicated during periods of intense crisis, when exceptional measures require the approval of a large part of the population to be accepted. population to be accepted. But these calls for unity come crashing down against the partisan wall: the mistrust that existed before is manifested in the same way during the crisis. This low level of trust may lead incumbent governments not to adopt the most effective public policies for the situation policies, for fear of destroying what little political capital they have they have managed to build up in recent weeks. It This is a real paradox for a regime that had been designed from the outset to cope with the most tumultuous periods in history. The current health crisis crisis reveals the political system's inability to provide the legitimacy the legitimacy the government needs to overcome it.
This situation can lead to to two types of political response. The first, which seems to be envisaged by the executive, is to expand the government to include personalities from right-wing or left-wing parties. This strategy also seems to be gaining to be gaining ground with public opinion, as shown by recent polls in favor of a government of national unity. A response however, is complicated to envisage in the long term, as the institutional is not conducive to this kind of compromise.
A second, more ambitious more ambitious option would involve a far-reaching reform of the institutional system where the constitution of a majority would require the gathering of a broader a broader political base, but which would in turn ensure greater legitimacy legitimacy, even at moments in history when the limits of the current of the current regime. Without altering the method of electing the President of the Republic, it seems essential that legislative elections be held on the same day the same day as the presidential election, in order to refocus Parliament's role in political life. Parliament's place in political life. This requires the introduction of a proportional proportional representation in parliamentary elections to correct the effects of the majority voting system. The balance of power resulting from the first round of legislative elections and presidential elections would oblige the parties to negotiate between the two rounds between the two rounds in order to secure a political majority in the second round. A more representative of the real political balance would be formed the electorate's general lack of confidence. This solution would combine institutional stability and greater democratic representativeness. From this from this point of view, the Great Containment could be the moment to initiate transformations that French democracy needs.
A second, more ambitious option would involve a far-reaching reform of the institutional system, in which the formation of a majority would require a broader political base, but which would in turn provide it with greater legitimacy, even at times in history when the limits of the current regime are underlined. Without altering the method of electing the President of the Republic, it seems essential that legislative elections take place on the same day as the presidential election, in order to refocus Parliament's role in political life. This means introducing a dose of proportional representation in legislative elections, to correct the effects of the majority voting system. The balance of power resulting from the first round of legislative and presidential elections would force the parties to negotiate effectively between the two rounds, in order to secure a political majority in the second round. The result would be a government more representative of the real political balance, lessening the general mistrust of the electorate. This solution would combine institutional stability with greater democratic representativeness. From this point of view, the Great Containment could be the moment to initiate the major transformations that French democracy needs.
This analysis was originally published by Le Figaro on April 30, 2020.