Jean Marcou, Professor of Law at Sciences Po Grenoble, researcher at CERDAP2 and associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul.

Two months after the earthquake that devastated the south-east of the country, killing more than 55,000 people less than a month before the next presidential and legislative elections elections to be held on May 14, 2023, the mood in Turkey is not exactly enthusiasm in Turkey. While the main candidates are probably campaigning than their Western counterparts, with traditional mass meetings, they are also traditional mass rallies, they are also multiplying their meetings and close with the victims of the earthquake, particularly during these festive times festivities and the end-of-Ramadan vacations. However, this does not rule out a certain originality and a renewal of communication methods...

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the united opposition candidate and challenger to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (the incumbent president), has made a habit of inviting his fellow citizens to little electronic "fireside chats" that he posts on his Twitter account. Sitting in his kitchen amidst the most banal of settings (deceptively rustic wooden table, white tiles, plastic water jug, Arçelik family stove), the Kemalist leader develops the main themes of his campaign in less than two minutes, usually in a bantering tone and with a touch of humor. On April 9, 2023, he caused a sensation by mobilizing a yellow onion for the occasion, the price of which (30 Turkish lira per kilo, i.e. almost €1.5) was supposed to embody the everyday life of the Turkish citizen. Since then, the onion, brandished at rallies and reproduced on numerous occasions, has become a symbol of these atypical elections, the outcome of which will nonetheless be decisive for contemporary Turkey and its future.

Onions and roads...

Soğan! Onion in Turkish! Kılıçdaroğlu couldn't have chosen a more evocative vegetable. He's the one you start peeling, slicing and frying in a frying pan, in the evening in Turkish homes, when you're still looking for inspiration for dinner. It's the kind that trucks hawk in working-class neighborhoods, usually with potatoes(Patates). " Patates, Soğan!" is the refrain is a refrain that has lulled the ears of many Turks from an early age. But today, the onion reminds a population hit hard by inflation that, after having to go without meat or cheese, they'll soon have to buy this bulb soon have to buy this prized bulb by the unit, as they have become accustomed with most other fruits and vegetables. For this election campaign is, after all, the first to take place in Turkey's current economic crisis that Turkey is currently experiencing. Certainly, in 2018 and 2019 (dates of the last general and municipal elections), the Turkish was already showing signs of running out of steam, but it had not yet passed the the stalling threshold it has crossed today, particularly in terms of the cost of living. cost of living.

Erdoğan, who perceived the power of the symbol, was quick to react. He replied to his challenger that to enjoy an onion, it's not enough to pick it up off the table. on a table, but that it must first be transported to the big cities by roads... and that these roads were built by the AKP. the AKP. And the outgoing president took up a campaign theme that had been campaign theme that had been so effective during his party's first re-elections to power. re-elections. At that time, neo-urbanites, who had voted en masse for Erdoğan for Erdoğan appreciated the fact that they could travel faster to their for funerals or weddings, using the new motorways built by the regime. built by the regime. But does this argument still make sense new generations who have become accustomed to using freeways, especially even more so when we know that onions were already arriving in towns before the even if they took longer?

Gas and an aircraft carrier

The Turkish was more convincing on April 21, 2023, when he inaugurated the inaugurated the Filyos terminal, which is beginning to deliver natural gas from the Sakarya field. Discovered three years ago in the Black Sea, is expected to meet 30% of the country's needs. During the election period, Turkish households were offered a free quota of 25 m3 of gas for one month. What better way to make voters understand that their that their energy bills will be significantly reduced in the coming weeks. coming weeks. This largesse is in addition to other advantages granted in recent months to various categories of the population (civil servants, housewives of the population (civil servants, housewives, young people...).

But on April 11, the AKP leader couldn't resist returning to his favorite themes, in particular that of the country's greatness, on the occasion of the inauguration of the TC Anadolu, an aircraft carrier that is to date the largest warship ever built by Turkey. Initially built to accommodate F-35 vertical-take-off fighter jets (which have meanwhile been embargoed by the US Congress), it will eventually carry Turkey's famous Barayktar TB2 drones (which should be equipped with a naval version, the Bayraktar TB3). For the time being, the ship is moored in Istanbul, at Seraglio Point, near the Sultans' Topkapı Palace, where it is open to the public.

Justice and democracy

It will take more more to shake Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's campaign, which, as we all know, was placed under the sign of sobriety and modesty. " Ben Kemal, geliyorum!" (I am Kemal, I am coming!). The credibility of the opposition candidate lies in his ability to appear as the one who can put an end to the The credibility of the opposition candidate lies in his ability to appear as the one who can put an end to the uninterrupted boom that the country has experienced in recent years. Major projects, military interventions, GDP growth, but also soaring prices soaring prices, growing environmental problems and curtailed freedoms. At a time when Turkey's economic miracle has come to an end economic miracle, this headlong rush is worrying many voters, all the more so in the aftermath of the seismic disaster that has recently which has just traumatized the country, and the extent of its consequences consequences.

So it's hardly surprising that one of the leitmotifs heard particularly from those who have given up voting for Erdoğan is the demand for justice. "Just order" had been the AKP's motto when it came to power. Twenty years on, this aspiration for justice naturally has a social dimension. It's about regaining the means to cope with the problems of everyday life. But it also has political overtones, reflecting the desire to return to a less centralized, more representative regime, and to a society where purges and self-censorship are no longer the order of the day.

Over the past decade, with the AKP and its leader sometimes taking a turn for the worse, questions have regularly been asked about what remains of Turkish democracy. Often described as a hybrid system, or even an illiberal regime, Turkey nevertheless remains a country with a deep-rooted electoral culture, and where interest in politics remains real. As Turkish citizens are automatically registered on the electoral roll when they reach the age of majority, they will turn out in large numbers on May 14, 2023 (probably 85% of those registered, as usual). This system also means that, should there be a second round of voting in the presidential elections, an additional 50,000 voters will be able to cast their ballots on May 28.

It's true that the government that has been in power for twenty years controls most of the major media groups, but control of official channels is now much less of a determining factor in a country where, as almost everywhere else, information passes largely through social networks and informal channels. As a result, the last pillar of Turkish democracy remains the vote, as demonstrated in 2019 by the municipal elections and the victory of two opposition mayors, Ekrem İmamoğlu, in Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, in Ankara. These mayors, who are destined to become vice-presidents of the Republic if Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu wins the election, often accompany him on his broadcasts and campaign rallies.

If the opposition wins, it has pledged to re-establish the parliamentary system that Turkey had enjoyed since its democratization in 1946. The gamble may seem risky, but it is likely to correspond to a fairly widespread aspiration, which is also expressed in the demand for a fairer, more representative order mentioned above. Opinion polls and even previous election campaigns had shown that Turks were hardly convinced by the relevance of a presidential system. Are they any more so today? It's not certain.

Four candidates in the election

Meanwhile, the elections, to be held on May 14, will be both presidential and parliamentary. The YSK(Yüksek Seçim Kurulu - Higher Elections Council), which is responsible for the smooth running of the elections, has formalized four candidates for the presidential race: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, backed by the People's Alliance (a coalition mainly comprising the AKP and the far-right MHP), Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the leader of the Kemalist Party, backed by the Nation Alliance (a coalition bringing together the main opposition parties), Muharrem İnce, a former CHP member who had been the sole opposition candidate in 2018, and finally Sinan Oğan, a former MHP deputy, who campaigns mainly to denounce Syrian immigration.

It is very important important to note here that the Kurdish HDP party, the country's third political force after the AKP and CHP, and which will be running for parliament under the under the YSP(Yeşil Sol Partisi - Green Left Party) label, has decided to to candidate, unlike in the two previous presidential elections, when its presidential elections, when its candidate came in third place and obtained 8 and 10% of the vote. It is certain that this constitutes decisive support support for the opposition candidate, and reinforces a dynamic of "all against Erdoğan" dynamic, which could result in a repeat of the scenario that led to Ekrem Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul's municipal elections. On the other hand, Muharrem İnce's presence in the first round could cost Kemal between 5% and 8% of the vote. Kılıçdaroğlu, and prevent him from being able to hope for victory in the first round the first round (which some opinion polls had not initially ruled out). excluded). In view of these parameters, most opinion polls therefore predict that the election will be decided in the second round between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu, with the latter winning by three to four points. with a three- to four-point lead.

Uncertain presidential elections and legislative elections in ambush

A Kılıçdaroğlu victory in the presidential election would be an event of international significance, as Turkey would then become one of the first examples of a regime committed to an illiberal drift to reverse course and return to a more open, if not outright democratic and parliamentary system. But it would also be a very important national moment that would see the country elect a Kurd from the province of Dersim, and an Alevi to boot. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's identity has often been presented as a handicap likely to lose him votes among a section of his electorate likely to give in to old nationalist demons. It could also be an asset, notably in capturing a wider Kurdish opposition electorate whose party will not be fielding a presidential candidate.

As for the parliamentary elections are not as decisive as in a parliamentary system parliamentary system, as in the current Turkish system there is no government accountable to parliament. However, the latter, composed of 600 deputies, votes on legislation and the budget, and thus determines the implementation of the presidential program. At present, moreover, the AKP does not have an absolute majority. majority. The president does, however, have a majority to pass his laws, thanks to support of his nationalist ally the MHP.

On May 14th 26 parties and 4 coalitions coalitions will take part in the legislative elections. However, the ballot will be contested by three coalitions in particular: the People's Alliance(Cumhur Ittifakı), comprising the AKP, the MHP, three Islamo-nationalist parties, the BBP, YRP and HUDAR-PAR, and a center-left party, the DSP; the Alliance of the Nation of the Nation(Milli Ittifaki), made up of the CHP, the moderate nationalist moderate nationalist İyi Party, two two dissident AKP parties, DEVA and GP, a center-right party and the Islamist SP; and the Alliance of Labor and Freedom(Emek ve Özgürlük Ittifakı), made up of the Kurdish HDP party (prudently reconverted to YSP) and the TİP workers' party.

The election is based on departmental proportional representation, with a national threshold of 7% required for parliamentary representation. Polls suggest a divided assembly, with the People's Alliance retaining a majority (albeit not an absolute one), sometimes with over 40% of the vote, while the Nation's Alliance would obtain between 37 and 40% of the vote, with the Kurds scoring 10%. Thus, even if analyses of the forthcoming presidential elections tend to overlook the parliamentary ballot, the uncertain outcome of the latter, placed in ambush, could well constitute a major handicap, whether the incumbent president is re-elected or his challenger wins in the end.